Appreciation forecast · Westchester
When will my house be worth what I want?
Set your purchase price and a target value. This runs ten thousand simulated futures against your town's own price history since 2000 — and tells you how long the wait is likely to be.
Typical home now $1.51M · averages +4.2%/yr
Coin flip · realistic
6 yrs
Odds first pass 50% in 2032. 94% chance within 20 years.
Coin flip · conservative
8 yrs
With a 1.5pt headwind, 2034. 82% chance within 20 years.
Growth needed per year
4.8%
To get there in 5 years. Just 2.4%/yr if you'll wait 10. Chappaqua has averaged 4.2%.
Projected value, 2026–2046
Ten thousand simulated futures, each drawn in three-year blocks from Chappaqua's actual returns — so real booms and real slumps stay intact instead of being averaged away. Shaded bands are the middle 50% and middle 80% of outcomes.
Odds of having reached $1,100,000
Cumulative — the chance the house has been worth your target at some point by that year. Both curves flatten as the paths that never make it become the stubborn ones.
Show the numbers
| Year | Realistic median | Realistic odds | Conservative median | Conservative odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y · 2027 | $899k | 0% | $886k | 0% |
| +2y · 2028 | $924k | 8% | $898k | 4% |
| +3y · 2029 | $961k | 31% | $920k | 23% |
| +5y · 2031 | $1.06M | 47% | $986k | 35% |
| +7y · 2033 | $1.14M | 61% | $1.03M | 47% |
| +10y · 2036 | $1.28M | 75% | $1.11M | 60% |
| +15y · 2041 | $1.55M | 89% | $1.25M | 74% |
| +20y · 2046 | $1.89M | 94% | $1.41M | 82% |
What the model learned from
Annual change in Chappaqua's typical home value, 2001–2026. Average 4.17% a year — but the average hides long stretches where nothing moved.
What this does and doesn't account for
These are nominal dollars
Inflation is not removed. At 2.5% a year, $1,100,000 in 2032 buys what about $948,527 buys today. Hitting a nominal target can be close to treading water in real terms — if you want genuine purchasing-power gain, aim higher.
- Growth rate, not price level
- The model borrows Chappaqua's rate of change and applies it to your price. It never assumes your house is worth the town's typical $1.51M.
- Method
- Block bootstrap, 3-year blocks, 10,000 paths per scenario, 20-year horizon. Conservative shaves 1.5 points off every drawn year.
- Not included
- Renovations, condition changes, transaction costs, carrying costs, taxes, and anything specific to your lot or layout.
- Source
- Zillow Home Value Index by ZIP, monthly, Jan 2000 – 2026-05. Past returns are not a promise about future ones.
This is a model of typical-value drift, not an appraisal, and not financial advice. For a valuation of a specific property, run a free analysis.